New inflation data from the ONS shows inflation is falling, and we’re getting ever closer to the inflationary holy grail of 2%.
CPI is at 2.3%, down from 3.2% in March. Yet this is above the 2.1% forecasted.
However, I judge it unlikely interest rates will fall at the next meeting (though the MPC vote will be closer).
Core inflation, so stripping out food and energy, is still high at 3.9%. (Inflation came down mostly due to energy prices falling).
More importantly…wage growth is still reportedly high, at 6%. In June 2023, interest rates rose because of high wage growth (inflation was falling).
So expect there to be fearful talks of a “wage price spiral” at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Where does all this knowledge come from? Why this data story of course. You can get more context on inflation, and interest rates in the new millennium by whizzing through the interactive data story.
And be the next big hit at cocktail parties as you talk about economic policy. I promise it’s a hit. Guaranteed.